Drones, balloons and lanterns: ruling out the usual suspects

When the government counted its unidentified aerial phenomena reports, the single largest group it could explain was balloons. Drones came next. That is not a dismissal of anyone's sighting; it is a measurement of what people are actually seeing when they look up and cannot place an object. Here is how to test the three most common candidates.

What the record says about clutter

The 2021 ODNI preliminary assessment grouped balloons, drones, birds and debris under a category it called airborne clutter, the first of its five possible explanations. Its January 2023 follow-up report counted 366 newly identified UAP reports, of which 163 were characterized as balloon or balloon-like and 26 as drones (per ODNI's 2022 Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena).

In other words, if you see something unidentified, there is a real chance it is one of these.

Suspect one: drones

Small consumer and commercial drones are now everywhere, and at night they can look very strange: a cluster of colored lights, hovering, then moving sideways without turning.

Signs it's a drone:

• A faint buzz or whine, especially when it changes speed.
• Colored LEDs: many drones carry red, green or white lights, sometimes blinking.
• It hovers in one place, or makes short, purposeful movements.
• It is low, often below a few hundred feet. In the U.S., the FAA's rules for recreational flyers set a ceiling of 400 feet above the ground.
• It returns to the same area repeatedly.

Light shows. Coordinated drone shows can put hundreds of lights in the sky at once, forming shapes. If you see an organized display near a town, check for a local event.

The New Jersey sightings. In late 2024, many residents of New Jersey and neighboring states reported drones at night. In December 2024, the FAA, the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI issued a joint statement saying their review found that many reported sightings were manned aircraft operating lawfully, along with lawfully operated drones, and in some cases stars. The episode is a good example of how one news story can lead many people to look up at once and see ordinary traffic in a new way.

Suspect two: balloons

Balloons come in many types, and some can reach great heights.

Type	Where you'd see it	What it looks like
Party and foil balloons	Low, drifting with the wind	Small, shiny; flashes in sunlight
Weather balloons	High, rising; launched twice a day from National Weather Service sites	A pale point or small disc in daylight, especially near sunrise or sunset
Research and high-altitude balloons	Very high; can drift for days	Bright point in daylight, sometimes with a visible payload
Hobbyist "pico" balloons	High-altitude, small; can travel long distances	Usually too small to see without optics

Why balloons can seem to defy the wind. Winds at different heights blow in different directions. A balloon high up can move against the wind you feel on the ground. That observation, common in reports, is entirely ordinary for high-altitude balloons.

The February 2023 balloon. On February 4, 2023, the U.S. military shot down a large Chinese high-altitude balloon off the coast of South Carolina, after it had crossed the country. Over the next several days, three more objects were shot down over Alaska, Canada's Yukon and Lake Huron. Those events showed how difficult it can be, even for the military, to identify small objects at high altitude quickly.

Suspect three: sky lanterns

Sky lanterns are paper lanterns lifted by a small flame. Released at weddings, festivals and memorials, they often go up in groups.

Signs it's a lantern:

• An orange or amber glow, often flickering slightly.
• Several lights rising slowly together, then drifting in the same direction.
• Silent, with no blinking.
• Lights fade out one by one as the fuel burns out, usually after several minutes.

Lanterns are restricted or banned in a number of places because of fire risk, so they may be released less often than they once were, but they still turn up in reports.

A quick decision guide

1. Is it making noise? A buzz points to a drone.
2. Is it moving with the ground-level wind? Lanterns and low balloons usually do.
3. Is it rising slowly and glowing orange? Think lanterns.
4. Is it high, pale, and visible in daylight? Think weather or research balloon.
5. Is it hovering with colored lights? Think drone.

What remains unexplained

These three suspects explain many reports, but not all. If you have noted the wind, listened for sound, checked colors and still cannot match your sighting, your report becomes more valuable for having done that work. It is exactly the kind of careful, documented observation that official investigators say they need.